Document and quantify instances where climate adaptation policies backfired, created unintended consequences, or shifted vulnerability to other populations, and identify the design principles that distinguish resilient adaptation from maladaptive responses.

Case study analysis of 40 major adaptation projects (dams, irrigation schemes, disaster response infrastructure) from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank project database. Comparison against counterfactual outcomes using satellite imagery, hydrological modeling, and livelihood surveys. Cross-referenced with IPCC AR6 Adaptation Chapter maladaptation taxonomy.

An estimated 20-30% of adaptation investments have experienced significant maladaptive outcomes. Large dam projects constructed to increase water security have displaced 400+ million people and often reduced downstream water availability during droughts due to operational inflexibility.

Crop insurance programs created perverse incentives for farmers in some regions to shift to water-intensive varieties unsuitable for projected climate conditions. Coastal seawalls built to protect against storm surge have accelerated erosion in adjacent regions and prevented natural mangrove migration as seas rise.

The common pattern: adaptation designed at one scale (national, sectoral) without accounting for system-level feedback loops and inter-regional dependencies.