Map the critical mineral dependencies of the clean energy transition (lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, copper), assess supply concentration risks, and quantify the gap between projected demand and supply on current investment trajectories.

IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2024 cross-referenced with USGS mineral supply data, BloombergNEF battery supply chain analysis, and Wood Mackenzie mining project pipeline database. Geopolitical concentration index calculated for each mineral using Herfindahl-Hirschman Index applied to production and processing data.

The clean energy transition requires 4-6x more critical minerals by 2040 than today. Lithium demand is projected to increase 40x by 2040; cobalt 20x; nickel 19x. China processes 60-70% of most critical minerals globally, regardless of where they are mined — creating a processing concentration risk that persists even if mining is diversified.

The DRC produces 70% of global cobalt, often under conditions linked to child labor and environmental destruction. Current mine development timelines average 16 years from discovery to production — meaning mines needed for 2035 need to be approved and funded by 2019, which did not happen. On current trajectories, lithium supply will face a structural shortfall by 2027-2028.